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Lunchseminarium: An alternative measure of forecast overprecision and its correlates with trading propensity


Forecasting studies frequently use confidence interval tasks to illustrate the tendency to trust personal forecasts too much (overprecision). Pointing at deficiencies of the standard assignment, we advance an alternative, more direct, measure of forecast overconfidence and use the modified task to test the overprecision hypothesis.

In three studies, 163 of 195 finance students and traders overestimate their forecast accuracy significantly, in line with overprecision. The improved task is used to test the correlation between forecast-confidence and trading propensity, revealing two distinct links between the two constructs.

Föreläsare: Doron Sonsino has a Ph.D in business economics from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and additionally holds an Ms.C in Operations Research (with excellence) from Tel-Aviv University Management School. Doron was a faculty member at the Technion and the College of Management, and in his early career also worked as a financial journalist covering the Israeli Capital Market. Doron's domains of interest in research and teaching are diverse, including financial decision-making, asset pricing and arbitrage, applied game theory, experimental economics and more. Doron is an associate editor at the Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Economics. He currently heads the finance studies at the Centre for Academic Studies in Or-Yehuda and is adjunct at Ben-Gurion University Economics department.

Datum: 2019-02-19

Tid: 12:15 - 13:00

Kategorier: Ekonomi/juridik

Arrangör: Gothenburg Research Institute

Plats: Gothenburg Research Institute Rum 326, plan 3, Viktoriagatan 13, Göteborg

Sista anmälningsdag: 2019-02-19 kl. 12:00.

Kontaktperson: Henric Karlsson

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Sidansvarig: |Sidan uppdaterades: 2011-06-22

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